hope, hope, hope

Says the NWS meteorologist at 3 this morning

With the increasing moisture over the next several
days...rain chances will be good for areas west of Interstate 35
where the best lift will be located. The GFS and Canadian models
are in decent agreement with the placement of the
trough...although some discrepancies can be noted with the
strength of the system. The European model (ecmwf) remains mostly dry for North
Texas with the bulk of the precipitation staying to the west. Will lean
more with the wetter solutions as the atmosphere should be primed
and ready for precipitation as the lift enters North Texas. The best
chances fore precipitation will be Saturday night into Sunday west of
Interstate 35. Rain chances will end Monday as the upper trough
exits to the north.

Will post this weekend to report any drops...

dry

About ten days ago in the evening I walked down to check on the pond, and was lucky enough in my inconspicuous approach to see three ducks floating around on it, and a great blue heron. The heron was standing about halfway out from the edge to the middle, and looked about shin-deep; obviously the water's pretty shallow.

I went carefully sneaking down the next evening with the camera, but no birds were in evidence. Just the poor shrunken little puddle, with a dead young pine on the dam. I guess I am lucky that the big pine on the dam top has survived (so far).





The clouds in the west were quite dramatic, but not of course to the point of producing any actual, you know, water.



This little bitterweed is growing in the rocks on the east side that are normally underwater. It is probably only flowering because of the one 5/8" rain we got back early in the month.

Weathermen changed their minds

Or maybe the weather changed IT'S mind. Today's discussion says,

"Looking ahead to the the second half of next week...the nation
could be in for a significant pattern shift as upper level high
pressure builds to the east and a deep trough develops across the
west. If this solution verifies it could bring increasing rain
chances to North Texas before the end of next week. "

Sure hope they are right about that rain. One afternoon of drizzle isn't going to make it.

The last rain of any really significant quantity was three months ago, on June 21st about 3 am. It was a nice 2-inch rain. The only problem was that it was accompanied by the worst hail I have ever seen, practically covering the ground here in the dark outside the back kitchen door.

So much hail accumulated in a pile where it slid off the roof in the valley by the rain-barrel, that the pile of ice did not melt till the sun hit it at noon, even though the morning temps were in the nineties, Here it is around 9am, along with all the oak twigs it brought down. Vegetation was just flattened. My thyme never recovered, and gave up before the heat broke, even though it was watered.

The hailstones were large enough, and blown hard enough by the very strong west winds of the storm, that the gallery glass wall now has three holes in it, after surviving 60 years. And the screen on the west end of the upstairs porch was all pulled out of its staples.

The frostweeds were pretty severely impacted by the hail; those big leaves of theirs were fairly well shredded. There are not nearly as many around the premises as last year, but a few ragged ones have survived the drought so far and are about to bloom. I have seen fields of snow-on-the-prairie in bloom, on the way over to McKinney. Don't know how it manages it. A few other fall flowers are showing up in the wake of that little drizzle we had last week. But mostly the ground is pretty bare.